North San Antonio News

Speakers at the Hill Country Economic Summit offered business leaders optimistic presentations as the area keeps attracting more residents, meaning housing demands will grow and traffic will become heavier.

Residents should expect projects that will change the community, Kerrville Economic Development Corp. Gil Salinas said. 

“We will find the money and leave no stone unturned," he said. "We do tons of research and make measured decisions that are helping the community grow. This is part science, part art, part engineering to make deals work. We are developing opportunities for people that might not even be in the room yet.”

Salinas said a group had the idea to import money to enhance economic development. 

“The first two are easy, and the third is the hardest. We don’t want to disrupt our quality of life. Now things are lining up in a ‘great convergence,’ especially for business retention and expansion," Salinas said. 

He envisions Kerrville to have six projects to include firms in aviation and metal fabrication. 

“A brand retail developer has been contacting us; while the Hobby Lobby deal pre-dated me. But ‘big fish’ start attracting other ‘big fish.’ They talk to each other," Salinas said. “We see 1,300 jobs being created here in the next 18-24 months. The State Hospital is adding 250 jobs. And Peterson Regional Medical Center is expanding and so is Fox Tank and James Avery. And we’re already talking to the All-Plastics people; and the USDA facility is adding about 50 people."

Even more jobs are expected by the end of the year, Salinas said. 

Alamo College said it will help improve workforce skills of residents. 

“It’s a great convergence of infrastructure, education, quality of place, and talent; and now this pipeline includes aerospace, local geography and leadership,” Salinas said. “Companies are looking for a city with ‘walk-ability,’ and growth here is east toward Kendall County. The Arcadia will be part of quality of life; and the 500 homes in Vintage Heights will provide an infusion of human capital and a signal to other communities.”

A new middle school is currently being built, which means the old school can be developed. 

A San Antonio EDC representative was at the summit to discuss aviation possibilities.

“Related businesses in a sector are a pyramid, with the prime company on top supported by suppliers, then ancillary operators and then entrepreneurs. Kerrville has a shot at a ‘tier one’ supplier," the EDC representative said. “We can’t do this alone. We need to reach out to regional partners; and one tool is developing ‘40 Under 40’ in seven counties between Kerr and San Antonio to recognize ‘millennials’ and entrepreneurs who really have a passion for getting young millennials on their way to becoming CEOs.”

At the summit, Salinas also spoke on the Kerrville Urban Trail System and the Heritage Museum that's planned for downtown. Salinas said these projects show how passionate the community is about connecting with past and future generations. 

Dr. Jim Gaines came to the summit to give a presentation on the Texas A&M University Real Estate Center's research. 

“The recession officially ended in June 2009. We’re not in a recession now and not anytime soon," Gaines said. "2020 will be a really interesting year, and a decennial year for the U.S. Census. About $1.2 trillion in federal money gets spent based on the Census, and Congressional seats allotted.”

He said the economy is mostly about jobs, income and demographics. He said 2019 was a good year. Gaines expects 2020 to be as well, but also slower. 

“If there’s a cloud, it’s debt," Gaines said. "Household debt is in good shape now, but we also have corporate debt and government debt. ‘Government’ is all levels from federal to HOA’s; anybody who can say no has regulatory power."

Gaines said he believes it's a patriotic duty to spend everything that a person can spend. But he also sees issues with spending and jobs. 

“The U.S. economy is no longer ‘goods-producing,’ but now is a ‘service industry’," Gaines said. “Jobs continue to be created, about 1 million versus an average unemployment rate of 5.9%. So what’s the problem? I don’t know either.”

The second-highest employment growth in the nation was in Texas. Texas jobs growth will be approximately 2% to 2.5%, which will add 260,000 jobs a year. But, Gaines said another recession is inevitable. 

“But it won’t be like 2007-09, and probably not this year. And we don’t know how long it will last," Gaines said at the summit.

Gaines also said he expects job growth in Texas in the coming years and in Kerr County, jobs have been stable for seven years with a growth of 5%. Weekly wages also increased by 3.1% a year. 

Texas population is expected to grow by 34 million people from 2010 to 2050, Gaines said. Kerr County population has many residents between 55 to 73, he said, which could slow down population growth. 

“Texas’ median age is 34.7 years. We’re a ‘young’ state. Only Alaska and Utah are that low,” Gaines said. 

Gaines also said a problem in Texas and specifically Kerr County is home prices. 

“Our problem is affordability, defined by how much money down and how much per month, compared to income," Gaines said. "The farther apart those figures are, the less affordable a house is. People can generally afford three times their annual income, but that situation is getting worse."

The multi-family housing market grew because of the recession, Gaines said. 

“Not nearly enough single-family permits have been issued; and low supply and high demand equals higher prices,'' Gaines said. 

But Gaines said he believes 2020 will be a good year for the housing market as long as there are lots to build on. 

“The lot price and finding construction people are the main two problems, influenced by rural land prices," Gaines said.

Other speakers at the summit presented information on the Arcadia Live project and the Kerrville 2050 Comprehensive Plan.